
Karen Kuntz
Minnesota School of Public Health
Karen Kuntz, Sc.D., is a professor at the Minnesota School of Public Health and a health decision scientist with experience in the methods and applications of using simulation modeling to evaluate clinical and public health strategies. She is the principal investigator of one of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) grants funded by the National Cancer Institute to evaluate the national trends in colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. She is also principal investigator of a grant from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality to examine the effects of disparities in screening, follow-up, and treatment on cancer-related outcomes. In addition to specific applications, she has become one of the leading authorities on describing errors and biases that can occur in disease modeling.
Persons with a negative result on screening colonoscopy are recommended to repeat the procedure in 10 years.
OBJECTIVE:
To assess the effectiveness and costs of colonoscopy versus other rescreening strategies after an initial negative colonoscopy result.
DESIGN:
Microsimulation model.
DATA SOURCES:
Literature and data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program.
TARGET POPULATION:
Persons aged 50 years who had no adenomas or cancer detected on screening colonoscopy.
TIME HORIZON:
Lifetime.
PERSPECTIVE:
Societal.
INTERVENTION:
No further screening or rescreening starting at age 60 years with colonoscopy every 10 years, annual highly sensitive guaiac fecal occult blood testing (HSFOBT), annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or computed tomographic colonography (CTC) every 5 years.
OUTCOME MEASURES:
Lifetime cases of colorectal cancer, life expectancy, and lifetime costs per 1000 persons, assuming either perfect or imperfect adherence.
RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS:
Rescreening with any method substantially reduced the risk for colorectal cancer compared with no further screening (range, 7.7 to 12.6 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] and 17.7 to 20.9 lifetime cases per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence] vs. 31.3 lifetime cases per 1000 persons with no further screening). In both adherence scenarios, the differences in life-years across rescreening strategies were small (range, 30 893 to 30 902 life-years per 1000 persons [perfect adherence] vs. 30 865 to 30 869 life-years per 1000 persons [imperfect adherence]). Rescreening with HSFOBT, FIT, or CTC had fewer complications and was less costly than continuing colonoscopy.
RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS:
Results were sensitive to test-specific adherence rates.
LIMITATION:
Data on adherence to rescreening were limited.
CONCLUSION:
Compared with the currently recommended strategy of continuing colonoscopy every 10 years after an initial negative examination, rescreening at age 60 years with annual HSFOBT, annual FIT, or CTC every 5 years provides approximately the same benefit in life-years with fewer complications at a lower cost. Therefore, it is reasonable to use other methods to rescreen persons with negative colonoscopy results.
Persons with a negative result on screening colonoscopy are recommended to repeat the procedure in 10 years.
OBJECTIVE:
To assess the effectiveness and costs of colonoscopy versus other rescreening strategies after an initial negativ... (more »)
Although surveillance for Barrett esophagus and other gastrointestinal precancerous conditions is recommended, no analogous guidelines exist for gastric lesions. The objective of this study was to estimate the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of treatment and endoscopic surveillance to prevent gastric cancer. METHODS:: The authors developed a state-transition decision model for a cohort of US men with a recent incidental diagnosis of gastric precancerous lesions (dysplasia, intestinal metaplasia, or atrophy). Strategies included 1) no surveillance or treatment and 2) referral for surveillance and treatment, and varied by surveillance frequency (none, every 10 years, every 5 years, or every year) and treatment modality for dysplastic and cancerous lesions (surgery or endoscopic mucosal resection [EMR]). The term "post-treatment surveillance" was restricted to surveillance of individuals after treatment. Data were based on published literature and databases. Outcomes included lifetime gastric cancer risk, quality-adjusted life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS:: For a cohort of men with dysplasia aged 50 years, the lifetime gastric cancer risk was 5.9%. EMR with annual surveillance reduced the lifetime cancer risk by 90% and cost $39,800 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Addition of post-treatment surveillance every 10 years provided little incremental benefit ( approximately 5%) but cost >$1 million per QALY. Results were most sensitive to surgical risks and the proportion of lesions completely removed with EMR. For intestinal metaplasia, surveillance every 10 years reduced lifetime cancer risk by 61% and cost $544,500 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS:: EMR with surveillance every 1 to 5 years for gastric dysplasia was promising for secondary cancer prevention and had a cost-effectiveness ratio that would be considered attractive in the United States. Endoscopic surveillance of less advanced lesions did not appear to be cost-effective, except possibly for immigrants from high-risk countries.
Although surveillance for Barrett esophagus and other gastrointestinal precancerous conditions is recommended, no analogous guidelines exist for gastric lesions. The objective of this study was to estimate the clinical benefits and cost-effecti... (more »)
Harvard School of Public Health







