BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings, HIV budgets are flattening or decreasing. A policy of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy (ART) after HIV treatment failure was modeled to highlight trade-offs among competing policy goals of optimizing individual and population health outcomes.

METHODS:

In settings with two available ART regimens, we assessed two strategies: (1) continue ART after second-line failure (Status Quo) and (2) discontinue ART after second-line failure (Alternative). A computer model simulated outcomes for a single cohort of newly detected, HIV-infected individuals. Projections were fed into a population-level model allowing multiple cohorts to compete for ART with constraints on treatment capacity. In the Alternative strategy, discontinuation of second-line ART occurred upon detection of antiretroviral failure, specified by WHO guidelines. Those discontinuing failed ART experienced an increased risk of AIDS-related mortality compared to those continuing ART.

RESULTS:

At the population level, the Alternative strategy increased the mean number initiating ART annually by 1,100 individuals (+18.7%) to 6,980 compared to the Status Quo. More individuals initiating ART under the Alternative strategy increased total life-years by 15,000 (+2.8%) to 555,000, compared to the Status Quo. Although more individuals received treatment under the Alternative strategy, life expectancy for those treated decreased by 0.7 years (-8.0%) to 8.1 years compared to the Status Quo. In a cohort of treated patients only, 600 more individuals (+27.1%) died by 5 years under the Alternative strategy compared to the Status Quo. Results were sensitive to the timing of detection of ART failure, number of ART regimens, and treatment capacity. Although we believe the results robust in the short-term, this analysis reflects settings where HIV case detection occurs late in the disease course and treatment capacity and the incidence of newly detected patients are stable.

CONCLUSIONS:

In settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability, trade-offs emerge between maximizing outcomes for individual patients already on treatment and ensuring access to treatment for all people who may benefit. While individuals may derive some benefit from ART even after virologic failure, the aggregate public health benefit is maximized by providing effective therapy to the greatest number of people. These trade-offs should be explicit and transparent in antiretroviral policy decisions.

BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings, HIV budgets are flattening or decreasing. A policy of discontinu... (more »)

To project the clinical and economic outcomes of a genotype assay for selection of third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, as per the planned international A5288 trial (MULTI-OCTAVE).

METHODS:

We used the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-International Model to compare three strategies for patients who have failed second-line ART in South Africa: sustained second-line: no genotype assay, all patients remain on second-line ART; A5288: genotype to determine the resistance profile and assign an appropriate regimen; or population-based third-line: no genotype, all patients switch to a potent third-line regimen. Model inputs are from published data in South Africa. Resistance profiles, ART regimens, and efficacy data were those used for trial planning.

RESULTS:

Projected life expectancy for sustained second-line, A5288, and population-based third-line are 61.1, 103.8, and 104.2 months. Compared to sustained second-line ($12 ,460), per person lifetime costs increase for the A5288 ($39, 250) and population-based ($44, 120) strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A5288, compared to sustained second-line, is $7500/year of life saved (YLS), and for population-based third-line, compared to A5288, is $154 ,500/YLS. In the A5288 strategy, very late presentation to care, coupled with lengthy delays to obtain the genotype, dramatically reduces 5-year survival, making the population-based third-line strategy more attractive.

CONCLUSIONS:

We project that, whereas the public health approach to third-line therapy is unaffordable, genotype assays and third-line ART in resource-limited settings will increase survival and be cost-effective compared to the population-based approach, supporting the value of an efficacy study.

To project the clinical and economic outcomes of a genotype assay for selection of third-line antiretrovir... (more »)

BACKGROUND: Although 900,000 HIV-infected South Africans receive antiretroviral therapy, the majority of South Africans with HIV remain undiagnosed.

METHODS: We use a published simulation model of HIV case detection and treatment to examine 3 HIV screening scenarios, in addition to current practice as follows: (1) one-time; (2) every 5 years; and (3) annually. South African model input data include the following: 16.9% HIV prevalence, 1.3% annual incidence, 49% test acceptance rate, HIV testing costs of $6.49/patient, and a 47% linkage-to-care rate (including 2 sequential antiretroviral therapy regimens) for identified cases. Outcomes include life expectancy, direct medical costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS: HIV screening one-time, every 5 years, and annually increase HIV-infected quality-adjusted life expectancy (mean age 33 years) from 180.6 months (current practice) to 184.9, 187.6, and 197.2 months. The incremental cost-effectiveness of one-time screening is dominated by screening every 5 years. Screening every 5 years and annually each have incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $1570/quality-adjusted life year and $1720/quality-adjusted life year. Screening annually is very cost-effective even in settings with the lowest incidence/prevalence, with test acceptance and linkage rates both as low as 20%, or when accounting for a stigma impact at least four-fold that of the base case.

CONCLUSIONS: In South Africa, annual voluntary HIV screening offers substantial clinical benefit and is very cost-effective, even with highly constrained access to care and treatment.

BACKGROUND: Although 900,000 HIV-infected South Africans receive antiretroviral therapy, the majority of South Africans with HIV remain undiagnosed.

METHODS: We use a published simulation mode... (more »)

The aim of the study was to quantify the benefits (life expectancy gains) and risks (efavirenz-related teratogenicity) associated with using efavirenz in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the USA. Methods We used data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study in an HIV disease simulation model to estimate life expectancy in women who receive an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral regimen compared with those who delay efavirenz use and receive a boosted protease inhibitor-based initial regimen. To estimate excess risk of teratogenic events with and without efavirenz exposure per 100 000 women, we incorporated literature-based rates of pregnancy, live births, and teratogenic events into a decision analytic model. We assumed a teratogenicity risk of 2.90 events/100 live births in women exposed to efavirenz during pregnancy and 2.68/100 live births in unexposed women. Results Survival for HIV-infected women who received an efavirenz-based initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimen was 0.89 years greater than for women receiving non-efavirenz-based initial therapy (28.91 vs. 28.02 years). The rate of teratogenic events was 77.26/100 000 exposed women, compared with 72.46/100 000 unexposed women. Survival estimates were sensitive to variations in treatment efficacy and AIDS-related mortality. Estimates of excess teratogenic events were most sensitive to pregnancy rates and number of teratogenic events/100 live births in efavirenz-exposed women. Conclusions Use of non-efavirenz-based initial ART in HIV-infected women of childbearing age may reduce life expectancy gains from antiretroviral treatment, but may also prevent teratogenic events. Decision-making regarding efavirenz use presents a trade-off between these two risks; this study can inform discussions between patients and health care providers.

The aim of the study was to quantify the benefits (life expectancy gains) and risks (efavirenz-related teratogenicity) associated with using efavirenz in HIV-infected women of childbearing age in the USA. Methods We used data from the Women's I... (more »)

BACKGROUND: As second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability increases in resource-limited settings, questions about the value of laboratory monitoring remain. We assessed the outcomes and cost-effectiveness (CE) of laboratory monitoring to guide switching ART. METHODS: We used a computer model to project life expectancy and costs of different strategies to guide ART switching in patients in Côte d'Ivoire. Strategies included clinical assessment, CD4 count, and HIV RNA testing. Data were from clinical trials and cohort studies from Côte d'Ivoire and the literature. Outcomes were compared using the incremental CE ratio. We conducted multiple sensitivity analyses to assess uncertainty in model parameters. RESULTS: Compared with first-line ART only, second-line ART increased life expectancy by 24% with clinical monitoring only, 46% with CD4 monitoring, and 61% with HIV RNA monitoring. The incremental CE ratio of switching based on clinical monitoring was $1670 per year of life gained (YLS) compared with first-line ART only; biannual CD4 monitoring was $2120 per YLS. The CE ratio of biannual HIV RNA testing ranged from $2920 ($87/test) to $1990 per YLS ($25/test). If second-line ART costs were reduced, the CE of HIV RNA monitoring improved. CONCLUSIONS: In resource-limited settings, CD4 count and HIV RNA monitoring to guide switching to second-line ART improve survival and, under most conditions, are cost-effective.

BACKGROUND: As second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability increases in resource-limited settings, questions about the value of laboratory monitoring remain. We assessed the outcomes and cost-effectiveness (CE) of laboratory monitorin... (more »)

BACKGROUND: Model-based analyses, conducted within a decision analytic framework, provide a systematic way to combine information about the natural history of disease and effectiveness of clinical management strategies with demographic and epidemiological characteristics of the population. Among the challenges with disease-specific modeling include the need to identify influential assumptions and to assess the face validity and internal consistency of the model.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We describe a series of exercises involved in adapting a computer-based simulation model of HIV disease to the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) cohort and assess model performance as we re-parameterized the model to address policy questions in the U.S. relevant to HIV-infected women using data from the WIHS. Empiric calibration targets included 24-month survival curves stratified by treatment status and CD4 cell count. The most influential assumptions in untreated women included chronic HIV-associated mortality following an opportunistic infection, and in treated women, the 'clinical effectiveness' of HAART and the ability of HAART to prevent HIV complications independent of virologic suppression. Good-fitting parameter sets required reductions in the clinical effectiveness of 1(st) and 2(nd) line HAART and improvements in 3(rd) and 4(th) line regimens. Projected rates of treatment regimen switching using the calibrated cohort-specific model closely approximated independent analyses published using data from the WIHS.

CONCLUSIONS: The model demonstrated good internal consistency and face validity, and supported cohort heterogeneities that have been reported in the literature. Iterative assessment of model performance can provide information about the relative influence of uncertain assumptions and provide insight into heterogeneities within and between cohorts. Description of calibration exercises can enhance the transparency of disease-specific models.

BACKGROUND: Model-based analyses, conducted within a decision analytic framework, provide a systematic way to combine information about the natural history of disease and effectiveness of clinical management strategies with ... (more »)

BACKGROUND: The United States and international agencies have signaled their commitment to containing the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic via early case identification and linkage to antiretroviral therapy (ART) immediately at diagnosis. We forecast outcomes of this approach if implemented in Washington DC.

METHODS: Using a mathematical model of HIV case detection and treatment, we evaluated combinations of HIV screening and ART initiation strategies. We define current practice as no regular screening program and ART at CD4 counts < or = 350 cells/microL, and we define test and treat as annual screening and administration of ART at diagnosis. Outcomes include life expectancy of HIV-infected persons and changes in the population time with transmissible HIV RNA levels. Data, largely from Washington DC, include undiagnosed HIV prevalence of 0.6%, annual incidence of 0.13%, 31% rate of test offer, 60% rate of acceptance, and 50% linkage to care. Input parameters, including optimized ART efficacy, are varied in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS: Projected life expectancies, from an initial mean age of 41 years, are 23.9, 25.0, and 25.6 years for current practice, test and treat, and test and treat with optimized ART, respectively. Compared with current practice, test and treat leads to a 14.7% reduction in time spent with transmissible HIV RNA level in the next 5 years; test and treat with optimized ART results in a 27.3% reduction.

CONCLUSIONS: An expanded HIV test and treat program in Washington DC will increase life expectancy of HIV-infected patients but will have a modest impact on HIV transmission over the next 5 years and is unlikely to halt the HIV epidemic.

BACKGROUND: The United States and international agencies have signaled their commitment to containing the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic via early case identification and linkage to antiretroviral therapy (ART) ... (more »)

BACKGROUND: Most persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the United States present to care with advanced disease, and many patients discontinue therapy prematurely. We sought to evaluate sex and racial/ethnic disparities in life-years lost as a result of risk behavior, late presentation, and early discontinuation of HIV care, and we compared these survival losses for HIV-infected persons with losses attributable to high-risk behavior and HIV disease itself. METHODS: With use of a state-transition model of HIV disease, we simulated cohorts of HIV-infected persons and compared them with uninfected individuals who had similar demographic characteristics. We estimated non-HIV-related mortality with use of risk-adjusted standardized mortality ratios, as well as years of life lost because of late presentation and early discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection. Data from the national HIV Research Network, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity, were used for estimating CD4+ cell counts at ART initiation. RESULTS: For HIV-uninfected persons in the United States who have risk profiles similar to those of individuals with HIV infection, the projected life expectancy, starting at 33 years of age, was 34.58 years, compared with 42.91 years for the general US population. Those with HIV infection lost an additional 11.92 years of life if they received HIV care concordant with guidelines; late treatment initiation resulted in 2.60 additional years of life lost, whereas premature ART discontinuation led to 0.70 more years of life lost. Losses from late initiation and early discontinuation were greatest for Hispanic individuals (3.90 years). CONCLUSIONS: The high-risk profile of HIV-infected persons, HIV infection itself, as well as late initiation and early discontinuation of care, all lead to substantial decreases in life expectancy. Survival disparities resulting from late initiation and early discontinuation of therapy are most pronounced for Hispanic HIV-infected men and women. Interventions focused on risk behaviors, as well as on earlier linkage to and better retention in care, will lead to improved survival for HIV-infected persons in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Most persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the United States present to care with advanced disease, and many patients discontinue therapy prematurely. We sought to evaluate sex and racial/ethnic disparities in... (more »)

BACKGROUND: Data from HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings show extensive rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) ranging from 5% to 40% within 6 mo of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Our objective was to project the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent LTFU from HIV care in West Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) International model to project the clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of LTFU-prevention programs from a payer perspective. These programs include components such as eliminating ART co-payments, eliminating charges to patients for opportunistic infection-related drugs, improving personnel training, and providing meals and reimbursing for transportation for participants. The efficacies and costs of these interventions were extensively varied in sensitivity analyses. We used World Health Organization criteria of <3x gross domestic product per capita (3x GDP per capita = US$2,823 for Côte d'Ivoire) as a plausible threshold for "cost-effectiveness." The main results are based on a reported 18% 1-y LTFU rate. With full retention in care, projected per-person discounted life expectancy starting from age 37 y was 144.7 mo (12.1 y). Survival losses from LTFU within 1 y of ART initiation ranged from 73.9 to 80.7 mo. The intervention costing US$22/person/year (e.g., eliminating ART co-payment) would be cost-effective with an efficacy of at least 12%. An intervention costing US$77/person/year (inclusive of all the components described above) would be cost-effective with an efficacy of at least 41%. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions that prevent LTFU in resource-limited settings would substantially improve survival and would be cost-effective by international criteria with efficacy of at least 12%-41%, depending on the cost of intervention, based on a reported 18% cumulative incidence of LTFU at 1 y after ART initiation. The commitment to start ART and treat HIV in these settings should include interventions to prevent LTFU.

BACKGROUND: Data from HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings show extensive rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) ranging from 5% to 40% within 6 mo of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Our objective was to project the clinical ... (more »)

BACKGROUND: Most persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the United States present to care with advanced disease, and many patients discontinue therapy prematurely. We sought to evaluate sex and racial/ethnic disparities in life-years lost as a result of risk behavior, late presentation, and early discontinuation of HIV care, and we compared these survival losses for HIV-infected persons with losses attributable to high-risk behavior and HIV disease itself. METHODS: With use of a state-transition model of HIV disease, we simulated cohorts of HIV-infected persons and compared them with uninfected individuals who had similar demographic characteristics. We estimated non-HIV-related mortality with use of risk-adjusted standardized mortality ratios, as well as years of life lost because of late presentation and early discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection. Data from the national HIV Research Network, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity, were used for estimating CD4+ cell counts at ART initiation. RESULTS: For HIV-uninfected persons in the United States who have risk profiles similar to those of individuals with HIV infection, the projected life expectancy, starting at 33 years of age, was 34.58 years, compared with 42.91 years for the general US population. Those with HIV infection lost an additional 11.92 years of life if they received HIV care concordant with guidelines; late treatment initiation resulted in 2.60 additional years of life lost, whereas premature ART discontinuation led to 0.70 more years of life lost. Losses from late initiation and early discontinuation were greatest for Hispanic individuals (3.90 years). CONCLUSIONS: The high-risk profile of HIV-infected persons, HIV infection itself, as well as late initiation and early discontinuation of care, all lead to substantial decreases in life expectancy. Survival disparities resulting from late initiation and early discontinuation of therapy are most pronounced for Hispanic HIV-infected men and women. Interventions focused on risk behaviors, as well as on earlier linkage to and better retention in care, will lead to improved survival for HIV-infected persons in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Most persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in the United States present to care with advanced disease, and many patients discontinue therapy prematurely. We sought to evaluate sex and racial/ethnic disparities in... (more »)