Natasha Stout

Assistant Professor in Population Medicine Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute
Assistant Professor
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Dr. Natasha Stout is an Assistant Professor in Population Medicine at the Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute. Her research agenda focuses on applying decision-analytic modeling methods to better understand if existing and emerging medical technologies are implemented and used to their fullest capacity to improve population health. Her methodological interests are in the development and calibration of population-based discrete-event simulation models of disease. She has particular expertise in the area of breast cancer natural history modeling. Since its inception in 2000, she has been participating in National Cancer Institute’s Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET), a collaboration of independent modeling teams formed to address unresolved policy questions in cancer control. She is the current recipient of an American Cancer Society career development award to evaluate MRI as it is used for breast cancer screening in the community. The research involves analyzing electronic health data from a large medical group practice to understand test performance and integrating the results into a decision-analytic model for policy evaluation. She is active in the Society for Medical Decision Making where she served on the Board of Trustees from 2010 to 2013 and coordinated career development and mentoring programs.  Dr. Stout received a B.A. in Mathematics from Oberlin College, and an M.S. in Industrial Engineering focusing on Operations Research and Decision Science and Ph.D. in Population Health Sciences from the University of Wisconsin. Prior to her Ph.D., she worked at Epic Systems, a firm in healthcare information software.

Posted on May 14, 2012
Authors: van Ravesteyn NT, Miglioretti DL, Stout NK, Lee SJ, Schechter CB, Buist DS, Huang H, Heijnsdijk EA, Trentham-Dietz A, Alagoz O, Near AM, Kerlikowske K, Nelson HD, Mandelblatt JS, de K
Ann Intern Med 2012 156(9): 609-617  PubmedID: 22547470

Background: Timing of initiation of screening for breast cancer is controversial in the United States. Objective: To determine the threshold relative risk (RR) at which the harm-benefit ratio of screening women aged 40 to 49 years... (more »)

Posted on October 3, 2012
Authors: Fabian P, Stout NK, Adamkiewicz G, Geggel A, Ren C, Sandel M, Levy JI
Environ Health 2012 18(11)  DOI: 10.1186/1476-069X-11-66

BACKGROUND: In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioe... (more »)

Posted on November 2, 2011
Authors: Mandelblatt JS, Cronin KA, Berry DA, Chang Y, de Koning HJ, Lee SJ, Plevritis SK, Schechter CB, Stout NK, van Ravesteyn NT, Zelen M, Feuer EJ
Breast 2011 20S75-81  PubmedID: 22015298


Optimal US screening strategies remain controversial. We use six simulation models to evaluate screening outcomes under varying strategies.


The models incorporate common data on incidence, mammograph... (more »)

Posted on April 1, 2010
Authors: Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Stout NK, Goldie S
Value in Health 2010  PubmedID: 20230547

ABSTRACT Objectives: Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses support decision-making. To augment model credibility, evaluation via comparison to independent, empirical studies is recommended. Methods: We developed a structured reporting format ... (more »)

Posted on February 1, 2010
Health care management science 2008 11(4): 399-406  PubmedID: 18998599   ISSN/ISBN: 1386-9620
Disease simulation models are used to conduct decision analyses of the comparative benefits and risks associated with preventive and treatment strategies. To address increasing model complexity and computational intensity, modelers use variance reduc... (more »)
Posted on February 1, 2010
Authors: Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Stout NK, Ortendahl J, Kuntz KM, Goldie SJ, Salomon JAA
Population health metrics 2007 511-  PubmedID: 17967185; 1478-7954-5-11 [pii]   ISSN/ISBN: 1478-7954   DOI: 10.1186/1478-7954-5-11
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural hist... (more »)

Community Breast MRI Screening: Clinical and Economic Implications

Learning about the use, clinical outcomes and economic consequences of screening breast MRI in the community to assess its cost-effectiveness

Comparative Modeling: Informing Breast Cancer Control Practice and Policy

Modeling population effects of novel breast cancer control approaches

Expanding National Health Accounts: Project 4: Trends in the Value of Cancer Care in the US

Comparing the benefits and costs of medical care to understand the interventions that improve health most efficiently

Future of Risk-Based Breast Cancer Screening In Community Settings

Maximizing the benefits of breast cancer screening in women with diverse levels of breast cancer risk

Impact of Radiation Therapy on Breast Conservation in DCIS

Investigating patient-specific risk factors underlying specific outcomes in people treated for Ductal Carcinoma In-situ