Policy Modeling and Decision Tools for HIV/AIDS Program Sustainability Analysis

Synthesizing epidemiologic, health system, and financial data to generate strategic information for HIV/AIDS policymakers

Arin Dutta

Elaine Baruwa

Gilbert Kombe

Policymakers need strategic information and analytical tools to assist with estimating the recurrent costs and non-pecuniary resources required to support HIV programs. It is important that these tools help policymakers quantify and visualize the medium- to long-term implications of current policy decisions. Computer models of HIV service delivery can be used to estimate the program output expected from the utilization of financial, human, and physical resource inputs. Using model-based tools, health ministries can anticipate the resource required for achieving HIV program goals, explore the implications of alternative service priorities and service delivery models, quantify sustainability risks associated with uncertain external funding streams and technical assistance, and stimulate plans to mitigate these risks.




The HIV/AIDS Program Sustainability Analysis Tool (HAPSAT) features a set of data collection instruments and a Microsoft Excel-based software application for conducting sustainability analysis. HAPSAT gives policymakers a sound framework and reliable methods for systematically evaluating HIV policy choices. Like any model-based tool, the accuracy and precision of HAPSAT’s output is directly related to the quality of its inputs. Nevertheless, by offering a transparent and systematic approach to modeling assumptions, HAPSAT contributes valuable information even in situations of poor data quality and completeness.


HAPSAT Model Structure