CHDS’s Jagpreet Chhatwal and colleagues forecasted global breast cancer trends to 2030 and found that a more nuanced metric revealed signs of progress for most countries despite failing to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for mortality reduction. The results are reported in a recent article published in BMJ Global Health.
The study projects that by 2030, premature mortality from breast cancer will increase in low- and lower-middle-income countries by 22.8% and 7.8%, respectively, while decreasing in upper-middle- and high-income countries. The analysis shows that only nine of 199 countries are on track to achieve the SDG target of a one-third reduction in premature mortality from 2015 levels.
However, the study argues that mortality rates alone provide an incomplete picture of cancer control efforts. The authors analyzed the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) which offers a more comprehensive measure by accounting for both cancer deaths and new diagnoses. Their models showed the MIR is projected to decrease across all income groups. This decline, particularly in lower-income countries, suggests that incremental improvements are being made in screening, diagnosis, and treatment even if they have not yet translated into overall mortality reductions.
The authors concluded that relying solely on mortality underestimates the progress being made in the global fight against breast cancer. They call for policymakers to integrate MIR alongside mortality to better evaluate the effectiveness of cancer control programs and to guide targeted investments to strengthen diagnostic and treatment capacity, especially in low-resource settings.
Learn more: Read the article, Forecasting Global Progress in Breast Cancer Control in the Context of the Sustainable Development Goals
Learn more: Read about the CHDS approach to Models and Tools
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