Methods: Models and Tools
Scan brief descriptions of methodological work conducted by our center community and our decision science colleagues.
This paper describes a cardiovascular disease model used to evaluate prevention and treatment, and a validation process in which simulated results were compared to observed all-cause and CVD-specific mortality data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey using survival curves and ROC curves.
This analysis used an empirically calibrated model of cervical cancer to explore the age distribution at which individuals acquired their causal HPV infection, finding 50% acquired it by age 20.6 and 75% by age 30.6. These findings raise concerns about surrogate endpoints for vaccine efficacy studies of mid-adult women.
These two papers describe the construction and empiric calibration of a cervical cancer microsimulation model at two time points, first leveraging primary data from a large epidemiological study (Kim et al.), and second leveraging data on type-specific HPV persistence and clearance from the control arm of vaccine trials (Campos et al.).