Menzies and collaborators at Yale University and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention used mathematical modeling to assess future TB outcomes in the U.S. They showed that if there are no changes in prevention or treatment, TB will decline by 52% from 2016 to 2050. If measures are taken to increase TB control efforts, the decline could be 77% by 2050. By 2100, TB may be eliminated among those born in the U.S. but not among the non-U.S.-born, who will account for an estimated 87% of TB cases at that time—and thus will be the dominant driver of future U.S. TB trends. “A long-term forecast like this is highly uncertain, but in all of the scenarios we looked at, it was clear that TB elimination would not be happening any time soon,” Menzies said.
The study was published online this month in American Journal of Epidemiology.
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