CHDS faculty Zachary Ward and colleagues developed the Global Cancer Workforce microsimulation model for The Lancet Oncology’s Commission on Cancer Workforce. The commission examines barriers to building and retaining cancer workforces in low-resource settings and provides evidence-based recommendations for strengthening global capacity.
The model estimated occurrence (both total and diagnosed) and stage at diagnosis in each of 200 countries for 17 cancers from 1990 to 2050, along with health system and workforce barriers to diagnosis for 18 workforce personnel types. It also estimated survival rates for each setting and the effect of increasing the cancer healthcare workforce between the years 2030 and 2050.
Cancer mortality varies globally, and previous studies have identified workforce shortages as an important factor. The Commission’s model studies global impacts of increasing the number of workforce personnel, finding that although shortages of individual workforce personnel types contribute importantly to poor cancer outcomes, a more comprehensive scale-up of diagnostic and imaging personnel and multidisciplinary teams would have larger improvements, particularly in places with high underdiagnosis.
Research findings were announced at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting in April 2026. By providing global, regional, and country-specific projections, this commission is particularly useful for policymakers for evidence-based planning and priority setting.
Learn more: Listen to The Lancet Oncology in Conversation With podcast, Hedvig Hricak and Zachary Ward on Cancer Workforce – a Global Crisis: A Lancet Oncology Commission
Learn more: Read the Harvard Chan School news story, Investing in Global Cancer Care Workforce Could Save Millions of Lives and Trillions of Dollars
Learn more: Read the ASCO Daily News story, Lancet Oncology Commission on Global Oncology Workforce Crisis Details Challenges, Calls for Action
Learn more: Read a brief Q&A with Ward about the Commission in the Department of Health Policy newsletter
Learn more: Read the publication about the model, Estimating Total and Diagnosed Global Cancer Incidence and Stage Distribution from 1990 to 2050: A Simulation-Based Analysis of 17 Cancers
Learn more: Read the publication describing the survival module, Estimating Global Cancer Survival and Mortality from 1990 to 2050: A Simulation-Based Analysis of 17 Cancers.
Learn more: Read the publication that includes the projection of the impact of scaling up specific workforce types on cancer mortality, Estimating the Impact of Scaling Up Workforce Personnel on Global Cancer Mortality from 2030 to 2050: A Simulation-Based Analysis of 17 Cancers and 18 Personnel Types
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