Jenny Spencer and CHDS colleagues Emily Burger, Nicole Gastineau Campos, Mary Carline Regan, Stephen Sy, Jane Kim, and affiliate Allison Portnoy developed and validated an agent-based model of heterosexual human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission using nationally representative U.S. data, recently published in Medical Decision Making.
The study used data from the National Survey of Family Growth from 2011–2019 to characterize sexual behavior, including grouping respondents into four sexual activity categories based on cumulative lifetime sexual partners. These data were incorporated into an existing HPV transmission model which was calibrated using age- and type-specific HPV prevalence data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2002–2008 (prior to widespread HPV vaccination in the U.S. population).
The model reproduced patterns of cumulative lifetime sexual partners and HPV16 prevalence across sexual activity categories. After simulating HPV vaccination rates over 10 years, the model also replicated post-vaccination NHANES data for HPV16 prevalence. The authors concluded that categorizing sexual behavior using cumulative lifetime partners could help models represent differences in HPV risk across age, sex, and sexual activity, as well as reflect changes in behavior over the lifespan. The validated model will support future analyses of HPV vaccination and cancer prevention, including the impact of single-dose vaccination in the United States.
Learn more: Read the publication, Adapting Sexual Behavior Survey Data to Parameterize an Agent-Based Model of Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Transmission
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